Published 2026-07-18 · rates & routes last checked 2026-07-16 · live route matrix
US Tariffs After July 24, 2026: What Sellers Should Do
At 12:01 a.m. EDT on July 24, 2026, the 10% US import surcharge collected since February expires by operation of law — and as of today nothing confirmed has been published to replace it. That is not a promise of cheaper shipping: the end of the $800 de minimis threshold is permanent either way, and matters more. What you can do this week is be right in both outcomes — know your HS codes and country of origin, get a DDP route that works, and have the repricing math ready rather than applied.
What actually expires on July 24
The surcharge is a Section 122 measure: 10% on most imports since February 24, 2026 (White House proclamation; CBP CSMS #67844987). It replaced the IEEPA tariffs the Supreme Court struck down on February 20, 2026 (Learning Resources v. Trump, 6–3).
Section 122 caps such a surcharge at 150 days unless Congress extends it by an act. Day 150 is July 24, and no extension bill had advanced as of mid-July. It is also under appeal (the CIT ruled against it May 7, 2026; the Federal Circuit stayed that June 11 and collection continued), so keep your duty receipts — refunds are a live question, not a promise.
What does not change on July 24:
- De minimis stays abolished. The $800 duty-free threshold ended for every country on August 29, 2025 (EO 14324), and CBP’s two rules of June 24, 2026 make that indefinite on separate authority (19 U.S.C. 1321). Those are interim final rules, comments closing July 24 — but no scenario brings the threshold back.
- Etsy’s DDP expectation stays. Since July 9, 2026 Etsy expects non-US sellers to build duties and import fees into the buyer’s checkout total via a DDP option. Orders shipped without duties prepaid don’t qualify for Purchase Protection, and carrier charges billed to your buyer can be refunded to them and deducted from you — see what DDP actually means on Etsy.
Also landing July 24: the postal informal entry process
Different rule, same date — and sellers keep merging the two. CBP’s interim final rule FR 2026-12669 takes effect July 24:
- Postal shipments up to $2,500 (HTSUS chapters 1–97) clear through a new informal entry process; goods needing formal entry anyway (quota, AD/CVD, chapters 98–99, PGA rules) stay outside it.
- Duties are no longer collected at delivery: the owner, the purchaser, or a licensed broker files a monthly worksheet with 10-digit HTS codes and pays via Pay.gov by the 7th of the following month. Foreign postal operators can’t file, and the filer needs a CBP importation-and-entry bond. The delayed-compliance window to October 22, 2026 covers only PGA / chapter 98–99 / FTA claims and doesn’t push back the first payment cycle.
If you post rather than courier, this reaches you whatever happens to the surcharge.
The two scenarios
Nothing final has been published — both of the following are scenarios, not forecasts.
| Scenario | What it would mean for your duty rate | What you should do |
|---|---|---|
| A — a replacement lands. Section 122 lapses and a Section 301-style schedule replaces it at or near the same moment. | Country-specific rates instead of a flat 10%. USTR’s June 2 proposal (FR 2026-11296): 10% for one group of trading partners, 12.5% for the rest, across about 60 economies. | Have the math ready for your origin’s proposed tier; check the proposed Annex A carve-outs and textile mechanism before repricing. |
| B — a gap. Section 122 lapses and no replacement is in force that morning. | The pre-February baseline: your MFN rate (HTSUS Column 1, “General”), China Section 301 on China-origin goods, Section 232 where it applies — for most origins, roughly 10 points below July 23. | Don’t rebuild prices around a gap that can close. Treat it as margin buffer or a reversible discount. |
On Scenario A. On June 2–3, 2026 USTR issued determinations in 60 forced-labor investigations and proposed duties of 10% for economies with a forced-labor prohibition in place or committed to, 12.5% for the others. The UK and EU member states appear in the proposed 10% tier; Japan, Türkiye, Vietnam and Australia in the 12.5% tier; Ukraine is not covered. Comments closed July 6, hearings were held July 7, and as of July 18 it is still a proposal. Unlike Section 122, Section 301 carries no rate cap and no automatic expiry clock.
On Scenario B. A gap would not be a return to 2024: de minimis is still gone, the postal process still changes that morning, Etsy still expects DDP. It can also be short — a final Section 301 notice can arrive with little warning.
Country of ORIGIN, not where you post from. A Section 301-style schedule keys off where goods were made: China-made stock sold from a studio in Manchester or Munich still carries China-origin treatment; a UK-made item shipped from a warehouse elsewhere is still UK-origin. Settle this before either scenario lands.
What to do before July 24
- Write down the HS code and country of origin for your top five sellers. Both scenarios price off those two fields. Check codes at hts.usitc.gov (Column 1, “General”) — many handmade and vintage categories carry a 0% base rate; most textiles and apparel don’t.
- Get a working DDP route in place now. Whether the rate is 0, 10 or 12.5 points, something has to collect and remit it so nobody bills your buyer at the door. The free DDP Route Matrix covers 11 origin countries and 108 verified US routes, with walk-throughs for the UK and Germany.
- Prepare both calculations, but do not reprice on speculation. Scenario B: July 23 landed cost minus 10 points. Scenario A: the same, plus your origin’s proposed tier. Repricing against a guess means repricing twice. If you bake duties into Etsy item prices, platform fees apply to that amount too.
- Selling prints, posters, photographs or books? Check the informational-materials exemption. HTS line 9903.03.11 keeps informational materials out of the 10% surcharge, so a typical UK- or DE-origin art print has carried an effective 0% (4911.91 lines are Free). The exemption dies with Section 122 on July 24 — books appear in the proposed Annex A, prints are not confirmed there. Check the duty line on your first DDP labels.
FAQ
Does the 10% surcharge really just disappear? Expiry is automatic: the statute caps this kind of surcharge at 150 days, and day 150 is July 24, 2026. Only an Act of Congress could extend it, and no bill had advanced as of mid-July. What replaces it is a separate decision, not yet published.
Will my duties go down on July 24? That depends on which scenario lands and on your country of origin. In a gap, most origins would sit about 10 points below July 23. If a Section 301-style schedule takes over at the proposed rates, a 10%-tier origin is roughly a wash and a 12.5%-tier origin about 2.5 points higher. Neither is confirmed.
Does the $800 de minimis threshold come back? No. It ended for all countries on August 29, 2025, and CBP’s June 24, 2026 interim final rules keep it gone on separate legal authority. Litigation is pending (Axle of Dearborn v. United States, argued June 23, 2026), but the stake there is refunds, not the threshold.
I ship by post. What changes for me? The postal process starts July 24 regardless of the tariff outcome: duties on shipments up to $2,500 stop being collected at delivery and move to a monthly worksheet with 10-digit HTS codes, paid via Pay.gov by the 7th — and only the owner, the purchaser, or a licensed broker can file it.
We publish the confirmed answer on July 24
Once that morning’s notices have been checked, we publish which scenario landed and what it means per origin country. Before then: open the free DDP Route Matrix — 11 origin countries, 108 verified US routes with the duty mechanics and a source for each — and join the email list below. The UK and Germany playbooks have the full setup.
ParcelClear provides estimates and setup guidance, not legal advice. We don’t prepare or file customs declarations and are not a customs broker or IOSS intermediary. Sources: §122 proclamation, CBP CSMS #67844987, FR 2026-11296 (proposal), FR 2026-12669/12670, EO 14324, hts.usitc.gov — checked July 15–18, 2026.